Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Social media sentiment and house prices: Evidence from 35 Chinese cities

Martin BERKA, Yiran MAO
We develop a new social media sentiment index by quantifying the tone of posts about housing on Weibo between 2010 and 2020 in 35 largest cities in China. We find that the social media sentiment index significantly predicts house price changes for up to six quarters ahead, after controlling for the ...
Keywords: Sentiment, social learning, house prices, China
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

The Evolution of Work from Home

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Jose Maria BARRERO
Full days worked at home account for 28 percent of paid workdays among Americans 20-64 years old, as of mid 2023, according to the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. That’s about four times the 2019 rate and ten times the rate in the mid-1990s that we estimate in time-use data. We first...
Keywords: Work from home, productivity, labor costs, job amenities, pandemic
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Sticky Wages on the Layoff Margin

Steven J. DAVIS, Pawel KROLIKOWSKI
We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage stickiness on the layoff margin. Most UI recipients express a willingness to accept wage cuts of 5-10 percent to save their jobs, and one third would accept a 25 percent cut. Yet wo...
Keywords: Wage rigidity, sticky wages, layoffs, unemployment insurance, survey of job losers, worker perceptions
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Information Cascades and Social Learning

David HIRSHLEIFER , Ivo WELCH, Omer TAMUZ, Sushil BIKHCHANDANI
An information cascade is a situation in which an agent who observes others chooses the same action irrespective of the value of the agent’s private information signal. Theoretical models have found that cascades result in poor information aggregation, inaccurate decisions, and fragility of mass b...
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Presidential Address: Social Transmission Bias in Economics and Finance

David HIRSHLEIFER
I discuss a new intellectual paradigm, social economics and finance: the study of the social processes that shape economic thinking and behavior. This emerging field recognizes that people observe and talk to each other. A key, underexploited building block of social economics and finance is socia...
Keywords: Social Transmission Bias, Social Economics, Social Finance, Behavioral Economics, Behavioral Finance, Social Networks, Social Learning, Information Percolation, Biased Percolation, Epidemiology, Visibility Bias, Self-Enhancin
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