Commentaries

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2020, Pandemic

Saving Lives versus Saving Livelihoods: Can Big Data Technology Solve the Pandemic Dilemma?

Kairong XIAO
This paper studies the effectiveness of big data technology in mitigating the economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. I exploit the staggered implementation of contact-tracing apps called “health code” in 322 Chinese cities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using high-frequency variati...
Keywords: big data, Coronavirus
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Commentaries

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2020, Pandemic

Post-COVID-19 Reconfiguration of the Global Value Chains and China

Bernard YEUNG, Hanming FANG
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Webinar Series

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Scott R. BAKER, Nicholas A. BLOOM, David E. ALTIG, Jose Maria BARRERO, Brent MEYER, Philip BUNN, Scarlet CHEN, Julia LEATHER , Emil MIHAYLOV , Paul MIZEN, Thomas RENAULT, Gregory THWAITES, Pawel SMIETANKA, Nick PARKER
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about ...
Keywords: forward-looking uncertainty measures, volatility, COVID-19, Coronavirus
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

Implications of Stochastic Transmission Rates for Managing Pandemic Risks

Neng WANG, Jinqiang YANG, Harrison HONG
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth but firms can mitigate damages. We estimate a large ...
Keywords: COVID-19, stochastic epidemic model, transmission volatility, Risk management, stock valuation
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending

Olivier COIBION, Yuriy GORODNICHENKO, Michael WEBER
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth lo...
Keywords: Subjective expectations, consumer spending, Labor market, Employment, COVID -19, Surveys
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