AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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May 2023

Working Paper AMPF23P003

Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future

Maurice OBSTFELD
Economists posit a critical real rate of interest below which the monetary policy setting is inflationary and above which it is deflationary. For roughly a decade after the Great Financial Crisis, many economists linked deflationary pressures to the difficulty central banks encountered in attaining ...
Keywords: interest rate, deflation, inflation, global factors, market indicators
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AMPF Papers

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Keynotes

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May 2023

Working Paper AMPF23P002

Housing, Household Debt, and the Business Cycle An Application to China and Korea

Amir SUFI
A rise in household debt in the medium run produces a boom-bust pattern in economic activity, and the subsequent downturn after a large rise in household debt can be especially painful (e.g., Mian, Sufi and Verner (2017), Mian and Sufi (2018), Mian, Sufi and Verner (2020)). The original research sho...
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AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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May 2022

Working Paper AMPF22P001

Has monetary policy cared too much about a poor measure of r*?

Ricardo REIS
Measures of the decline in r ∗ are (almost) exclusively based on a fall in government bond yields. Yet, measures of the return on private aggregate capital are roughly constant, or slightly increasing, in most advanced economies. This fact is robust across measures of the demand for capital, using...
Keywords: liquidity trap, zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy.
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AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2022

Working Paper AMPF22P002

Retirement Policy in a Post-Covid World

Eric FRENCH
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AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2022

Working Paper AMPF22P003

Spatial and Sectoral Reallocation of Firms, Workers and Jobs Induced by the Pandemic

John HALTIWANGER
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