The Real Effects of Administrative Disclosure on Cross-Border Trade

This study examines the real effects of government disclosure of aggregated administrative data on international trade. In April 2015, China began publicly disclosing the names of firms awarded the top tax compliance rating, which is derived from detailed administrative records capturing firms’ regulatory compliance, transactional reliability, and financial record-keeping quality. We posit that the disclosure provides a credible and easily accessible signal of firms’ contractual risk to foreign business partners. Using transaction-level export data, we find that firms with a top rating relatively increase exports by 7.4% following the disclosure, with stronger effects at the extensive margin. Consistent with an information friction channel, the effect is stronger among private firms, when perceived financial reporting quality is low, and where buyer-exporter communication is limited. Furthermore, we show that the disclosure improves trade efficiency, as reflected in reduced relationship disruption risk and improved operational performance among customers. Overall, our findings demonstrate that government-administered disclosure complements financial reporting in alleviating information frictions that hinder cross-border trade.