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Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2017

Informal-sector employment is pervasive in developing economy cities. The informal sector contributes little to public finance and has low productivity due to the lack of access to trade support and export market, which is available in the formal sector. We study cross-region variations in employmen...
Keywords: Informal sector, Spatial equilibrium, Formalization cost, Export
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2016

We present a dynamic model that links characteristic-based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy-wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of syste...
Keywords: characteristic-based return predictability, systematic risk, mispricing
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Inventory models posit that return autocorrelation is affected by collateral, volume, and expected volatility. We show that daily market autocorrelations are lower on negative return days, consistent with collateral concerns. Unlike previous literature, we document a strong role of volatility on aut...
Keywords: Market Liquidity, Volatility, Serial Correlation, Collateral, Liquidity Risk
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2024

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our measure...
Keywords: Business cycle, macroeconomic news, economic sentiment, monetary policy, textual analysis, machine learning, big data, neural networks
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

We document stark differences in the labor market outcomes between the U.S. and China, the largest two economies in the world, during the past 30 years. (1) The peak age in cross-sectional age-earnings profiles stays constant at around 45- 50 years old in the U.S. but decreases sharply from 55 to 35...
Keywords: Age-Earnings Profiles, Human capital, Life Cycle
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