Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We examine next-day newspaper accounts of large daily jumps in 19 national stock markets to assess their proximate cause, clarity as to cause, and geographic source. Our sample of over 8,000 jumps, reaching back to 1900 for the United States, yields several novel findings. First, news about monetary...
Keywords: Stock market jumps, clarity about jump reason, monetary policy, government spending shocks, Fed put, global impact of US, market volatility, text analysis, human readings
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

This paper studies global stock market reactions to COVID-19 outbreaks caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The stock markets in countries that suffered from 2003 SARS diseases caused by a similar virus (SARS-CoV-1) react more quickly and strongly to the first COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan China during late...
Keywords: COVID-19, Underreaction, Early Experience, stock market
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2015

The sign of the correlation between equity returns and exchange rate returns can be positive or negative in theory. Using data for a broad set of forty-two countries, we find that exchange rate movements are in fact unrelated to differentials in country-level equity returns. Consequently, a trading ...
Keywords: Empirical Asset Pricing, exchange rates, Uncovered Equity Parity, International Asset Allocation
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Jun 2025

A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected stock returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section of ...
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresse...
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