Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Jun 2025

A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected stock returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section of ...
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresse...
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We study how bias in the social transmission process affects contagion of consumption beliefs and behavior. In the model, consumption is more salient than non-consumption. This visibility bias causes people to perceive that others are consuming heavily and have favorable information about future wea...
Keywords: Consumption behavior, Overconsumption, Visibility bias
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Little research exists on matching CEOs and directors. We find female independent directors (IDs) strengthen the benefits of overconfident (OC) CEOs. Female IDs reduce excess capital expenditures and less profitable acquisitions, increase R&D, and mitigate excessive risk taking. They impose grea...
Keywords: Female independent directors, Gender-diverse board, Directors’ death, Male independent directors, Board Independence, Overconfident CEOs, Firm performance, Over-investment, SOX, SOX compliant firms
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

We document characteristics-based return anomalies in a large cross-section (>4,000) of crypto assets. Cryptocurrency returns exhibit momentum in the largest-cap group, reversals in other size groups, and strong crypto value and network adoption premia, from which we derive two novel factors to a...
Keywords: Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, DeFi, Factor Models, Network Effect, Market Segmentation
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