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How do Stimulus Policies Move Firms’ Expectations? Evidence from Chinese Micro and Small Enterprises

How do stimulus policies shape firms’ expectations and decisions? The authors answer this question using a high-frequency survey of Chinese micro and small enterprises linked to transaction-level outcomes. Exploiting the overlap between the 2024Q3 survey window and China’s late-September 2024 stimulus announcements, the authors show that firms update their expectations rapidly: expected growth, inflation, and stock returns rise, while subjective uncertainty falls. Firms also become more optimistic about their own revenues and business prospects, are less likely to plan shutdown, and shift financing demand toward expansion. Beyond average effects, the announcement strengthens the synchronization between macro and micro expectations, weakens extrapolation from recent firm performance, and improves the alignment between expectations and subsequent realized outcomes. The results point to an expectations channel of stimulus transmission.

18
Sep
2026
Friday

Session Chair: Xiaoyan ZHANG
Xinyuan Chair Professor of Finance, Associate Dean, PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University and ABFER

10:00 am
How do Stimulus Policies Move Firms’ Expectations? Evidence from Chinese Micro and Small Enterprises

Zhen HUO, Associate Professor of Economics, Yale University

Co-authors:
Minghao LI, Assistant Professor, National School of Development, Peking University
Zheng (Michael) SONG, Wei Lun Professor of Economics and Department Head, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Xiaohan YANG, Research Assistant Professor, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Xiaobo ZHANG, Chair Professor of Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University
10:25 am
Discussion
Discussant:
Carola BINDER, Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin
10:50 am
Q&A
11:10 am

Updated 24 Aug 2026

Session Format

Each session lasts for 1 hour 10 minutes (25 minutes for the author, 25 minutes for the discussant and 20 minutes for participants' Q&A). Sessions will be recorded and posted on ABFER website, except in cases where speakers or discussants request us not to.

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