Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

Does Climate Change Affect Real Estate Prices? Evidence from Government Announcement

Sumit AGARWAL, Tien Foo SING, Yu QIN, Changwei ZHAN
This paper investigates the relationship between climate change information and property prices. We employ datasets of home transactions and a novel climate change information shock in Singapore, the sea level rise (SLR) projections announced by the government. Based on Difference-in-Differences est...
Keywords: climate change, property prices, government announcement, Singapore
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

Stock Market Milestones and Mortgage Demand: Evidence from US

Sumit AGARWAL, Changcheng SONG, Sergio CORREIA, Bernardo MORAIS
We document that after the stock market index reaches a milestone number (round 1000), more households apply mortgage for home purchase, and they are more likely to apply mortgage for second homes compared to non-milestone historical maxima. The loan amount also increases after the milestone event. ...
Keywords: Stock market wealth, Rounding number bias, mortgage
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics

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May 2022

Federal Tax Deductions and the Demand for Local Public Goods

Brent W. AMBROSE, Maxence VALENTIN
Property taxes are the primary funding mechanism by which local governments pay for public goods. In the United States, the federal income tax system provides a subsidy to this cost by allowing taxpayers to deduct property taxes on their federal income tax returns. Using local referendum approval ra...
Keywords: Local Public Finance, Tax Deductibility, Fiscal Policy, Capitalization, TCJA
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China

Ping WANG, Yang TANG, Carlos GARRIGA, Aaron HEDLUND
This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a newly developed multi-sector heterogeneous agent equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. U...
Keywords: Migration, Structural Transformation, Housing.
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

Currency Risk in the Long Run

Pasquale Della CORTE, Giorgio VALENTE, Can GAO, Daniel P.A. PREVE
We study the long-horizon risk profile of a currency strategy, whereby a US investor earns excess returns by entering in an unhedged long position in a foreign long-term bond funded at the domestic risk-free rate. After showing the drivers of the strategy returns, we derive and estimate their long-h...
Keywords: Currency risk, Long-term bonds, Predictability, Long-term investments
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