Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Taxing the rich to finance redistribution - Evidence from a permanent tax increase in Singapore

Sumit AGARWAL, Wenlan QIAN, Bernard YEUNG, Huanhuan ZHENG
Based on a representative sample of consumer financial transaction data, this paper studies the consumption and savings response to a 2015 permanent increase in the marginal income tax of the high-income taxpayers. Using difference-in-differences regressions, controlling for individual and time fixe...
Keywords: income tax, Consumption, savings, redistributive policy, Fiscal Policy
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

The Real Impact of FinTech: Evidence from Mobile Payment Technology

Sumit AGARWAL, Wenlan QIAN, Bernard YEUNG, Yuan REN, Hsin-Tien TSAI
We utilize the introduction of a mobile payment technology by the largest bank in Singapore in 2017 to study how mobile payment technology reshapes economic activities and stimulates business creation. After the introduction, business-to-consumer industries witnessed a higher growth rate of business...
Keywords: FinTech, Mobile payment, Cash, Credit card, Real effect, Small business, Business creation, Entrepreneurship, Consumption, banking, Digital economy, Transaction cost, Inclusive growth
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Stock Prices, Lockdowns, and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

Steven J. DAVIS, Dingqian LIU, Xuguang Simon SHENG
Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid February to late May 2020. Global stock prices fell 30 percent from 17 February to 12 March, before mobility declined. Over the next 11 days, stocks fell another 10 percentage points as mobility dropped 40 ...
Keywords: stock prices, lockdown policies, market shutdowns, Coronavirus, COVID-19, workplace mobility, China
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Firm-Level Risk Exposures and Stock Returns in the Wake of COVID-19

Steven J. DAVIS, Stephen HANSEN, Cristhian SEMINARIO-AMEZ
Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the Risk Factors discussions in pre-pandemic 10-K filings and two text-analytic approaches: expert-curated dictionaries and supervised machine learning (ML). Bad COVID-19 news lowers return...
Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic, Firm-level risk exposures, Stock Returns
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows, Pandemic

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May 2020

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty

Steven J. DAVIS, Scott R. BAKER, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Aniket BAKSY, Jonathan RODDEN
We examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. Uncertainty shows a clear tendency to rise in the months leading up to elections. Average EPU values are 13% higher in the month of and the month prior to an election than in other months of the same ...
Keywords: uncertainty, Policy uncertainty, elections, polarization
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