Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Do Trade Creditors Possess Private Information? Evidence from Stock Returns

David HIRSHLEIFER , Ben LOURIE, Yifan LI, Thomas G. RUCHTI
Theories of customer supplier relationships hold that the private information of suppliers about buyers explains the use of trade credit even when there is a competitive banking sector. If suppliers possess private information about their buyers, then the buyer’s order size and ability to pay on t...
Keywords: trade credit, non-bank lending, customer-supplier relationships, Stock Returns, private information
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows

Andrew K. ROSE, Eugenio CERUTTI, Stijn CLAESSENS
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows.  We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q4 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics.  Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use ...
Keywords: empirical, data, center, country, panel, fit, VIX, equity, bonds, FDI, Credit
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance? Cross Country Evidence

Andrew K. ROSE, Jose A. LOPEZ, Mark M. SPIEGEL
We explore the effect of negative nominal interest rates on bank profitability and behavior using non‐structural techniques and a cross‐country panel of over 5,200 banks in 27 countries.  Our data set includes annual observations for Japanese and European banks between 2010 and 2017, and covers...
Keywords: zero, effective, lower, bound, data, firm, empirical, regression, panel, deposit, size
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports

Andrew K. ROSE
A country's exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries.  I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of ...
Keywords: empirical, panel, data, gravity, Gallup, leadership, approval, positive, international
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

The Macroeconomy After Tariffs

Andrew K. ROSE, Davide FURCERI, Swarnali A. HANNAN, Jonathan D. OSTRY
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs.  We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963‐2014.  We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines...
Keywords: protection, output, productivity, unemployment, inequality, exchange rate, trade balance
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