Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2021

Future Technology Hubs or Backwater? Lessons on Structural Change from Germany’s Coal Regions

Wolfgang KELLER, Ehsan VALLIZADEH, Simon JANSSEN
This paper studies the structural adjustment from natural resource-intensive industry- to knowledge-based growth. The closure of coal mines in Germany over 1975-2017 produces local labor market shocks that reveal how the presence of natural resources and international competition may affect the rise...
Keywords: Mining, spillover effects, Employment, labour mobility
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2021

Transport Infrastructure and Productivity: The China Experience

Meijun QIAN, Steven J. DAVIS
China has undertaken massive investments in its surface transportation system since the early 1990s, continuing to the present day. We study the impact of these public investments on plant productivity and resource allocation efficiency. We first collect and geocode highly detailed data on China’s...
Keywords: Transport infrastructure, productivity, dispersion, allocative efficiency, China.
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2021

Capital-Reallocation Frictions and Trade Shocks

Eugene TAN, Pamela MEDINA, Andrea LANTERI
What are the short- and medium-term effects of an import-competition shock on firm dynamics and aggregate productivity? We address this question by combining detailed data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufacturing firms, data on trade flows from China, and a quantitative general-equilibrium m...
Keywords: capital reallocation, Firm Dynamics, Investment Irreversibility, Trade Shocks
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2021

Trade Wars and Industrial Policy along the Global Value Chains

Xiaodong ZHU, Zi WANG, Hong MA, Jiandong JU
We provide a quantitative evaluation of the welfare impacts of the US-China trade conflict starting in 2018. We first document that the first wave of tariffs on China imposed by the Trump administration targeted China’s Industrial Policy rather than Chinese imports. They are concentrated on high t...
Keywords: Trade Policy, Industrial Policy, Economies of Scale, Substitutability in Input-Output Networks.
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2021

Geographic Fragmentation in a Knowledge Economy: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Lin TIAN, Yang JIAO
We study how the rise in cross-city joint productions (or “geographic fragmentation”)—facilitated by advancements in communication technologies—shapes the spatial skill distribution in the United States. Motivated by observations that large cities became disproportionately skill intensive an...
Keywords: Joint productions, communicaton technologies, skill, wages
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