Annual Conference

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Investment Finance, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2017

Using transaction-level credit card spending from a large US financial institution, we show that disaggregated sales provide accurate and persistent signals of customer demand relevant to a firm’s stock pricing. After controlling for earnings and sales surprises, one inter-quintile increase in the...
Keywords: return predictability, informed investors, disaggregated sales, customer demand, Credit Cards, Consumption, Household Finance, financial institution, big data
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Annual Conference

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Real Estate and Urban Economics

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May 2019

We study how capital flows affects German cities’ GDP growth depending on the state of their real estate markets. Identification exploits a policy framework assigning refugees to cities on a quasi-random basis and variation in nondevelopable area for the construction of an exposure measure to real...
Keywords: Cross-border flows, capital flows, Collateral, City Business Cycles, Credit, Germany, GIPS Spread, Real estate, tangible assets
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Annual Conference

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Economic Transformation of Asia

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May 2015

This study evaluates the impact of a randomized control trial (RCT) in China that introduced externally funded village credit funds in poor, rural villages. In contrast to recent RCT-based studies that have failed to find evidence of significant increases in income from microfinance interventions, w...
Keywords: Microfinance, program evaluations, randomized control trial
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Annual Conference

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Accounting

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May 2015

I develop the notion of “thin political markets.” These are esoteric areas of market rule-making where corporate managers possess the technical expertise necessary for informed regulation, enjoy strong economic interests in the outcome, and face little political opposition. The motivating phenom...
Keywords: Political standards, Political economy, M&A, auditing, accounting
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2015

We show that a model of an advanced small open economy with exports in commodities and search and matching frictions in the labour market can match the impulse responses from a panel vector autoregression to an identified commodity price shock. Using a minimum distance strategy, we find that interna...
Keywords: Commodity prices, Search and matching unemployment
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