Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2026

Long-run Uncovered Interest Parity in Emerging Markets

Alessandro REBUCCI, Sinem Yagmur TORAMAN, Giorgio VALENTE
Long-run uncovered interest rate parity (LRUIP) tends to hold for G10 currencies (Chinn & Meredith, 2004; Lustig, Stathopoulos, & Verdelhan, 2019). Focusing on the ten most freely floating emerging market currencies (EM10), we show that UIP does not hold even in the long run for emerging mar...
Keywords: LRUIP, Credit risk, Credit ratings, G10 currencies, Emerging markets, U.S. Dollar.
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2026

Beyond Bilateral Flows: Indirect Connections and Exchange Rates

Saleem BAHAJ, Pasquale Della CORTE, Daniele MASSACCI, Eduard SEYDE
This paper studies how cross-border financial connections affect the response of exchange rates to trade shocks. Theoretically, we develop a multi-country model whereby a country’s exchange rate depends on the financiers’ ability to manage capital flows between a country and its counterparties (...
Keywords: Exchange Rates, Currency Returns, Imperfect Financial Markets, Global Banking
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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2026

The Value of One Office Day a Month

Cevat Giray AKSOY, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Steven J. DAVIS, Victoria MARINO, Cem OZGUZEL
Remote work has expanded rapidly, but the value of regular in-person contact remains un-clear. We report a randomized controlled trial in which a large multinational assigned 248 customer-service employees either to remain fully remote or to work from the office together one day per month. Monthly o...
Keywords: Remote work teams, limited in-person contact, productivity, communications, retention, attrition
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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2026

Demand-Driven Technical Change: Evidence from WFH Technologies

Steven J. DAVIS, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Mihai CODREANU
COVID-19 brought a sharp, unanticipated increase in the usefulness and value of technologies that support work from home (WFH). To investigate how this shock influenced the direction of technical change, we examine the text in 5.6 million U.S. patent applications published from 2010 to 2026. The sha...
Keywords: directed technical change, patents, COVID-19, work from home, remote work, video conferencing, text analysis, induced innovation
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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2026

Firm Data on AI

Ivan YOTZOV, Jose Maria BARRERO, Nicholas A. BLOOM, Philip BUNN, Steven J. DAVIS, Kevin FOSTER, Aaron JALCA, Brent MEYER, Paul MIZEN, Michael A. NAVARRETE, Pawel SMIETANKA, Gregory THWAITES, Ben Zhe WANG
We survey nearly 6,000 senior business executives at US, UK, German, and Australian firms to develop new evidence on AI adoption and its effects on jobs, productivity, and output. Specifically, we ask executives about AI usage, its effects at their own firms over the past three years and, looking ah...
Keywords: artificial intelligence, productivity, jobs, firms, survey data
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