Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2025

Inflation Expectation and Cryptocurrency Investment

Lin William CONG, Pulak GHOSH, Jiasun LI, Qihong RUAN
Using proprietary data from the predominant cryptocurrency exchange in India together with the country’s Household Inflation Expectations Survey, we document a significantly positive association between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases. Higher inflation expectations a...
Keywords: Bitcoin, Crytocurrency, Household Finance, Inflation, Stablecoin
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2025

Geopolitical Risk and Global Banking

Friederike NIEPMANN, Leslie SHEN
How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopolitical risk but continue lending to those markets th...
Keywords: geopolitical risk, bank lending, credit risk, international spillovers
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2025

Beyond the Aggregate: Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Allocation

Sui-Jade HO, Ozer KARAGEDIKLI, Samantha ONG
How does monetary policy affect mortgage allocation across income groups? Using comprehensive credit registry data from Malaysia (2017-2023), we examine the distributional effects of monetary policy shocks on new mortgage demand, probability of approvals, value of new mortgage originations, maturity...
Keywords: Monetary policy, credit allocation, household finance, mortgage market, Malaysia
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2025

The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, r**

Ozge AKINCI, Gianluca BENIGNO, Marco DEL NEGRO, Albert QUERALTO
We build a macro-finance model with an occasionally binding financing constraint where real interest rates have opposite effects on current and future financial stability, with the contemporaneous impact driven by valuation effects and the future impact driven by reach-for-yield by intermediaries. W...
Keywords: Occasionally Binding Financing Constraint, financial crises, monetary policy, Financial Stability Policy, Macroeconomic Model with Banks
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Jun 2025

War Discourse and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns

David HIRSHLEIFER, Dat MAI, Kuntara PUKTHUANTHONG
A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected stock returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section of ...
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