Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking, Senior Fellows/Fellows

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May 2022

We study the long-horizon risk profile of a currency strategy, whereby a US investor earns excess returns by entering in an unhedged long position in a foreign long-term bond funded at the domestic risk-free rate. After showing the drivers of the strategy returns, we derive and estimate their long-h...
Keywords: Currency risk, Long-term bonds, Predictability, Long-term investments
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2022

We investigate the real effects of foreign exchange (FX) volatility on technological innovation. Using a 32-market, three-decade sample, we show that heightened FX volatility associates with significantly lower firm-level R&D expenditures, patents granted, and forward citations. The negative FX ...
Keywords: Foreign Exchange Volatility, Technological Innovation, Patents, R&D
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2022

The financial channel of exchange rates operates through changes in risk-taking by investors and is reflected in the response of financial conditions to exchange rate movements. We show that stock returns also reflect the financial channel of exchange rates, with higher local currency stock returns ...
Keywords: global liquidity, pricing factor, emerging market, exchange rate
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2022

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries starting in 1940. Theory predicts that the sectoral allocation of credit matters for distinguishing between â€...
Keywords: credit booms, credit allocation, growth, banking crises
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Annual Conference

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International Macroeconomics, Money & Banking

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May 2022

This paper takes a new approach to assess the benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential and monetary policies, foreign exchange interventions, and capital controls—in response to changes in financial conditions. Starting from quantile regressions, we evaluate policies across the f...
Keywords: monetary policy, macroprudential policy, FX intervention, capital controls, cost-benefit analysis
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