Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2026

Optimal Trade Policies and Market Power in General Equilibrium Trade Models

Yan BAI, Dan LU, Hanxi WANG
We derive optimal trade policies in a multi-country, multi-sector general-equilibrium model that unifies a wide range of supply-side assumptions. Under our CES supply system, which nests most existing specifications, two-country optimal tariffs and export taxes across sectors depend only on elastici...
Keywords: Optimal Policies, Tariffs, Export Taxes, General Equilibrium, CES supply system, Imperfectly Substitutable Labor, Economies of Scales, Endogenous Self- and Cross-Export Supply Elasticities
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2026

Social Learning among Urban Manufacturing Firms: Energy - Efficient Motors in Bangladesh

Ritam CHAUREY, Gaurav NAYYAR, Siddharth SHARMA, Eric VERHOOGEN
Knowledge spillovers among firms are widely viewed as a key driver of agglomeration and growth, but are difficult to estimate cleanly. We randomly allocated an energy-efficient motor — a “servo” motor — among leather-goods firms in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and tracked adoption, information flows, ...
Keywords: Industrial Organization, Firm Behavior, Industry Studies, Development and Growth, Regional and Urban Economics
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2026

A Lost Decade of Fiscal Misallocation

Kosuke AOKI, Ippei FUJIWARA, Zhenhe LIN, Zheng Michael SONG, Chendong WANG
This paper examines how fiscal windfalls from interest rate cuts influenced resource allocation during Japan’s Lost Decade (1993-2002). We document two key empirical patterns: a shift of resources from private to government sectors and a deteriorating spatial allocation of government investments. ...
Keywords: Fiscal misallocation, Japanese economy, lost decade, resource curse
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Annual Conference

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Trade, Growth and Development

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May 2026

Global Production Networks with Global Uncertainty

Jingting FAN, Wenlan LUO
We investigate how global uncertainty affects sourcing decisions and aggregate trade. We develop a quantitative trade model with anticipatory sourcing building on the Eaton-Kortum/Caliendo-Parro framework. The model incorporates uncertainty in productivity and tariffs, enabling anticipatory effects ...
Keywords: input-output linkages, international trade, uncertainty, international risk diversification, uncertain trade war
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Annual Conference

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Investment Finance

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May 2026

The Pricing of Geopolitical Tensions over a Century

Andrei S GONCALVES, Alessandro MELONE, Andrea RICCIARDI
We study capital allocation and asset pricing consequences of geopolitical tensions using nearly 100 years of data. Leveraging widely adopted news-based geopolitical risk indices, we find that geopolitical threats (GPT) and acts (GPA) have markedly different implications. GPT closely tracks geopolit...
Keywords: Geopolitical Tensions, Geopolitical Risk Perceptions, Investor Beliefs, Capital Allocation, Cross-Section of Risk Premia, Time Variation in Risk Premia
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