Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

This paper casts within a unified economic framework some key challenges for the global economic order: de-globalization; the rising impracticability of global cooperation; and the increasingly confrontational nature of Great Power competition. In these, economics hasbeen weaponised in the service o...
Keywords: epic fail, globalization, Great Powers, Third Nations, world order, zero sum
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We use the futures commission merchants (FCMs) reports released by CFTC to construct a frequent (monthly) and timely (one-month delay) market-level leverage measure, based on the aggregate margin of market participants. The derivative-market leverage negatively (positively) predicts returns of risky...
Keywords: Derivative-Market Leverage, Risk Premia, Return Predictability, Risk Aversion
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Our study examines the impact of women’s abortion rights protection on female auditors’ mobility. Exploiting the state-level adoption of Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers (TRAP) laws that restrict women’s access to abortion, we find that female auditors’ propensity to relocate to sta...
Keywords: TRAP Laws, Abortion Policy, Skilled Women, Labor Mobility, Political Ideology, auditors
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We develop a new social media sentiment index by quantifying the tone of posts about housing on Weibo between 2010 and 2020 in 35 largest cities in China. We find that the social media sentiment index significantly predicts house price changes for up to six quarters ahead, after controlling for the ...
Keywords: Sentiment, social learning, house prices, China
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Full days worked at home account for 28 percent of paid workdays among Americans 20-64 years old, as of mid 2023, according to the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes. That’s about four times the 2019 rate and ten times the rate in the mid-1990s that we estimate in time-use data. We first...
Keywords: Work from home, productivity, labor costs, job amenities, pandemic
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