Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

This document provides an overview of the FIN and PEAD factors of Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Sun (2020) and describes their motivations, constructions, and availability. Based on investor psychology, Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Sun (2020) propose a theoretically motivated factor model that augments the m...
Keywords: Factor Models, Behavioral Factors
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

The peer review process typically has multiple evaluators. Too often editors rely on the Union Heuristic, which requires authors to perform all requested tests and extensions suggested by referees and editors, with results confirming the paper’s message. The Union Heuristic is easy, but has dysfu...
Keywords: Editing, Editorial process, Peer review, Research, Academic publishing, Innovation, Turnaround time, Refereeing, Union Heuristic, Intersection Heuristic, Up-or-out
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors' beliefs and securities markets. Using data on investor social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality locations generate stronger immediate price, volatility, and trading volume reactions....
Keywords: Social Networks, Information Diffusion, Earnings Announcement, Investor Attention, Disagreement, Social Finance
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Senior Fellows/Fellows

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Senior Fellows/Fellows

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresse...
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AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2023

Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical evidence suggests these decision makers form expectations in ways that deviate from the assumptions in these models: on average, inflation expectations are biased upwards relative to e...
Keywords: Macroeconomics, Intertemporal Choice, Consumption, Savings, Surveys, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Experiments, Financial Decision-making, Cognition, Communication.
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