AMPF Papers

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Policy Note

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May 2023

Subjective Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Communication: The Role of Medium, Messenger, and Message

Michael WEBER
Inflation expectations of households and firms are central determinants in all dynamic macro models. Yet, empirical evidence suggests these decision makers form expectations in ways that deviate from the assumptions in these models: on average, inflation expectations are biased upwards relative to e...
Keywords: Macroeconomics, Intertemporal Choice, Consumption, Savings, Surveys, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy,
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AMPF Papers

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Commissioned Paper

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May 2023

Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future

Maurice OBSTFELD
Economists posit a critical real rate of interest below which the monetary policy setting is inflationary and above which it is deflationary. For roughly a decade after the Great Financial Crisis, many economists linked deflationary pressures to the difficulty central banks encountered in attaining ...
Keywords: interest rate, deflation, inflation, global factors, market indicators
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AMPF Papers

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Keynotes

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May 2023

Housing, Household Debt, and the Business Cycle An Application to China and Korea

Amir SUFI
A rise in household debt in the medium run produces a boom-bust pattern in economic activity, and the subsequent downturn after a large rise in household debt can be especially painful (e.g., Mian, Sufi and Verner (2017), Mian and Sufi (2018), Mian, Sufi and Verner (2020)). The original research sho...
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Annual Conference

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Sustainable and Green Finance

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May 2023

Impact Investing and Venture Capital Industry: Experimental Evidence

Ye ZHANG
This paper studies the effect of startups’ ESG characteristics on venture capitalists’ investments by linking investors’ behavior in an incentivized experiment to their real-world portfolio data. I find that investors perceive impact ventures to be less profitable and harder to evaluate than s...
Keywords: Sustainable Finance, Field Experiments, Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship
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Annual Conference

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Sustainable and Green Finance

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May 2023

ESG Shocks in Global Supply Chains

Guoman SHE, Alminas ZALDOKAS, Emilio BISETTI
We show that U.S. firms cut imports by 11.1% and are 4.2% more likely to terminate a trade relationship when their international suppliers are hit by environmental and social (E&S) scandals. These trade cuts are larger for publicly-listed U.S. importers facing high E&S investor pressure and ...
Keywords: ESG, environmental scandals, global supply chains, regulatory outsourcing, shareholder pressure
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