Annual Conference

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Tech, Digital Markets and AI

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May 2026

We develop Structured-Knowledge-Informed Neural Networks (SKINNs), a unified estimation framework that embeds theoretical, simulated, previously learned, or cross-domain insights as differentiable constraints within flexible neural function approximation. SKINNs jointly estimate neural network param...
Keywords: AI, Bayesian Statistics, Deep Learning, Derivative Pricing, Econometrics, Theory
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Annual Conference

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Tech, Digital Markets and AI

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May 2026

We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared in an LLM’s training corpus, a statistic we term Lookahead ...
Keywords: Large Language Model, Lookahead Bias, Return Predictability
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Annual Conference

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Tech, Digital Markets and AI

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May 2026

Machine learning (ML) methods are highly flexible, but their ability to approximate the true data-generating process is fundamentally constrained by finite samples. We characterize a universal lower bound, the Limits-to-Learning Gap (LLG), quantifying the unavoidable discrepancy between a model’s ...
Keywords: machine learning, asset pricing, predictability, big data, limits to learning, excess volatility, stochastic discount factor, kernel methods
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Annual Conference

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Labour Economics

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May 2026

Falling fertility is one of the most pressing demographic and economic challenges of the twenty-first century, particularly in East Asia. Among the many popular explanations, the rise of companion animals has captured public imagination, often portrayed as substitutes for children or as complements ...
Keywords: Fertility, Pet Ownership, Pro-natalist Policies
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Annual Conference

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Labour Economics

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May 2026

This paper investigates how immigration affects consumer prices. Using scanner data and instrumenting county-level immigration with historical ancestry patterns, we find that an inflow of 10,000 immigrants lowers four-year price growth by 0.58 percentage points. Leveraging variation in firm exposure...
Keywords: Immigration, Consumer Prices, search, Demand Elasticity
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